This is the second part of a review of American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival
Regional Cultures of North America by
Colin Woodard, a seminal book about the real political boundaries of the
continent. This part covers the
implications of regional divisions for climate change policy in the U.S. and
North America. I suggest that readers
first take in part
1 for a basic description of the regions.
When the landmark federal
climate bill narrowly passed the U.S. House of Representatives in 2009 it
illustrated deep regional divides on global warming policy in the U.S. For most of the country one could almost
predict how a representative would vote by the region from which they
hailed.
“ . . . the measure received
near-unanimous support in New Netherland, the Left Coast, and Yankeedom,” Colin
Woodard writes, while “the Far West offered near-unanimous bipartisan
opposition, joined by the overwhelming majority of Appalachian and Deep
Southern lawmakers.” The exception –
“Tidewater and The Midlands were divided.”
That perfectly expresses the
regionality of U.S. climate politics, and one that continues to hold. The U.S. would have a carbon-limiting
framework if it were up to people in the three climate-supportive regions. Indeed these are exactly the regions that are
pioneering regional climate policy in the U.S.
New York and the New England states instituted the nation’s first carbon
cap, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for power plants. California has
the first economy-wide carbon cap in the U.S., while British Columbia has
instituted a carbon tax. Efforts are underway to bring carbon limits to
Washington and Oregon.
Meanwhile states making up
the Deep South and Far West are hotbeds of climate change denial and
obstruction. When climate policy
strategists look for a winning pathway to resurrect a federal climate bill - the
first effort died in the Senate in 2010 - they write off most representatives
from these regions. They look to swing
votes from Tidewater and the Mid-Atlantic-to-Midwest swathe of The
Midlands.
An indicative exception is
Colorado, much covered by El Norte.
Latinos when polled express greater concern about global warming than
any other ethnic group (including non-Latino whites). This bodes well for the future of climate
policy in the Southwest.
For the nation as a whole the
picture is more troubling. The
centrifugal tendencies seen in the federal climate vote are only intensifying
as U.S. regions spin off in sharply different directions. Washington state studies the effects of sea
level rise on coastal communities, while North Carolina bans discussion of the
topic from coastal planning.
“Few (regions) have shown any
indication that they are melting into some sort of unified American culture,”
Woodard notes. “On the contrary, since
1960 the fault lines between these nations have been growing wider, fueling
culture wars, constitutional struggles, and ever more frequent pleas for
unity.”
Of all issues, global warming
seems to exhibit the most centrifugal tendencies. A recent poll shows climate has become even more
divisive than abortion. While
national, the regional breakdown is predictable. The increasing inability of Americans to
agree on climate and a range of other topics has frozen action at the federal
level.
In complete contradiction to
the political gridlock, the acceleration of global warming impacts urgently
calls for action. It seems a hopeless
dilemma for climate advocates, who do the best they can working at state and
local levels. If anything, the situation
should underscore the critical importance of enacting effective state and local
climate frameworks.
There are two ways to look at
state carbon policy efforts. One sees
passage of state policies as primarily significant in building momentum to
eventual federal action. So the internal
efficacy of the policy is not so important as the larger political and symbolic
impact. The second sees state policies
as important not only for the potential larger impact, but also as significant
policy measures to achieve substantial carbon reductions on their own. So efficacy of the policy becomes a prime
consideration.
We should hope that enacting
policies in states such as Oregon and Washington will provide national
momentum, and that the national picture will improve sufficiently to pass
federal policy by 2018 or so. But with
prospects for a Republican Senate in 2014, continued national divisions and an
uncertain 2016 presidential result after eight years of a Democratic White
House, conditioning state policy design on national policy success is a risky
game. It may be the 2020s before a
federal carbon limit can pass.
Thus state carbon policies
must be designed to be internally effective.
In other words, they should be geared to reduce state carbon emissions
to levels consistent with the need to keep overall global temperatures under 2°C, the line at which
catastrophic feedbacks become likely. It
should not be assumed that state policies have prime significance as leverage
points to pass an eventual federal policy that will really get the job
done. State policies should fully model
what a federal policy should do in terms of carbon reduction necessities. Their successful implementation in ways that
demonstrate actual economic benefits will be the most powerful driver for
passage of national climate policy.
Economic success is
crucial. Pro-climate states must show
they can outcompete anti-climate states in the marketplace. They must
demonstrate that policies that cut carbon provide better economic performance
by improving efficiency and bringing new technologies to bear. There are many studies that indicate this is
the case, for example with the BC carbon tax.
That leads to a further
critical point. State and provincial
policies can go far to reduce carbon emissions.
But to reduce emissions deeply enough and fast enough to stay under that
2°C limit is highly challenging.
Emissions must be reduced at
least 2 percent annually over a long period, and cuts of 6 percent per year
would be required to stabilize climate by 2100. Accomplishing these goals with
carbon caps and pricing alone could raise competitive difficulties and shift
polluting activities to other nations.
See these posts on BC
and Britain.
Climate policy opens another avenue though, generation
of substantial revenues. For a carbon
framework to have a realistic chance of meeting the 2°C goal, a significant share of
the revenues must be invested in effective low-carbon solutions.
The most effective would be to create a large pool of
low-cost capital to finance mass-scale, deep energy efficiency retrofits that
capture opportunities at a 20-year rate of return, rather than the general
3-year low-hanging-fruit projects that typify efficiency investments.
Large loan guarantee pools could de-risk private
capital investment in low-carbon solutions including renewable power generation,
power grid modernization, sustainable fuels production and agricultural
practices that build soil carbon.
A tremendous upgrading of transit and options to auto
travel by individual drivers is also a high-return low-carbon investment. Options can include van and ride pools,
telecommuting, bicycle and pedestrian access, and measures to site housing
close to jobs.
Investments in forest carbon storage, whether by
outright public purchase or conservation easements, are highly necessary for
climate stabilization. Financial models that
govern industrial forestry will not allow the long harvest rotations needed to
adequately increase forest carbon reserves. Buying forest carbon in competition
with board feet becomes expensive and can only go so far.
These investments would build state economies and new economic sectors.
States and regions can make themselves
investment engines to build new low-carbon economies that indeed do demonstrate
the competitive edge of pro-climate states.
There will be large
temptations to use carbon revenues for many other underfunded needs of fiscally
pressed state governments, such as education, or to simply rebate the money, as
does BC. Some level of rebating is
needed to defray the impacts of higher energy prices on low- and middle-income
people. Meeting state funding gaps is
another important goal, but this should not be done on the back of climate
policy. Elected leaders must offer
overall revenue solutions. Carbon revenues should be spent on carbon
reduction.
In a nation seemingly flying
apart on multiple issues, none more than climate change, it is crucial that
state and regional policies do the most effective job they can. They must be designed to meet ambitious
carbon reduction goals consistent with the needs of climate stability and our children’s
generations. Let us hope that eventually
the national balance will tip to an effective carbon limit. But for now in a U.S. that is flying apart, state and
regional climate policies are central. They
must be made to work as if they are the only game in town. For some years to
come they probably are.
The final installment will cover how to win on climate in the climate-intractable regions of Far West, Greater Appalachia and Deep South, as well as in swing regions The Midlands and Tidewater. The imperative is to join in building a broader progressive coalition advancing economic justice and democracy, one that makes rapid clean energy transition a key goal to achieve those ends.
The final installment will cover how to win on climate in the climate-intractable regions of Far West, Greater Appalachia and Deep South, as well as in swing regions The Midlands and Tidewater. The imperative is to join in building a broader progressive coalition advancing economic justice and democracy, one that makes rapid clean energy transition a key goal to achieve those ends.
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