Climate Solutions and the Washington Environmental Council are trying to
kill Carbon Washington’s carbon tax ballot initiative before it gets off the
ground.
The two groups, the driving force behind the Alliance for Jobs and Clean
Energy now supporting Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s carbon cap-and-trade bill in
the legislature, this past week sent out email broadsides decrying the Carbon
Washington initiative even as CarbonWA is beginning
to ramp up a citizen-driven signature effort for its newly minted
Initiative 732. Trying to dampen enthusiasm for the measure, Climate Solutions and
WEC say they are ready to run an initiative of their own if current legislative
efforts fail.
The Inslee bill, the Carbon Pollution Accountability Act, is already on
life support. House Democrats threw the plan under the bus weeks ago when they
proposed a 2015-17 state budget without carbon revenues Inslee would raise
through a carbon emissions auction market.
Facing a Republican-controlled
Senate and a Republican caucus solidly lined up against carbon pricing, the
House Dems were unwilling to fall on their sword for the governor.
Rep.
Joe Fitzgibbon, “who is the point person for Inslee’s plan in the House . . .
said the bill fell a few votes below the 50 House Democratic supporters in
behind-the-scenes discussions needed to guarantee that it would pass,” John
Stang reported in Crosscut.
Ironically, its best chance for revival is politician fear of
the CarbonWA initiative, as Stang reports in a Thursday article, Carbon
tax: Rising from the ashes in Olympia?
Stang writes, “ . . . legislators have looked at signature
gathering by the group Carbon Washington to put Initiative 732 on the 2016
ballot . . . The prospect of a blunt initiative rather than a more nuanced bill
has prompted legislators to huddle about Inslee’s carbon emissions tax
proposal, said Fitzgibbon.”
“You may have heard about another group of activists, Carbon WA,
that is also considering a ballot measure on carbon pollution,” wrote Climate
Solutions Washington Director Jessica Finn Coven and Executive Director Gregg
Small Friday. “We are not working to support that ballot measure because our
focus now is on seeing through this current legislative session and continuing
to build the powerful movement that we need to win . . . Indeed, we are waging the legislative
battle so that, win or lose, we have built momentum and a movement for a
possible initiative. But it’s too early to pull up stakes in
Olympia.”
The last two lines constitute a not-so-subtle dig at CarbonWA and its supporters who, by implication, have "pulled up the stakes" on a process they see likely to go nowhere. It is also a blatant attempt to depress citizen signature gathering in the vital first two or more months of the effort. Finn Coven and Small well know the legislative session is likely to last into June. But don't worry, they say, we'll have our own initiative if we fail in Olympia.
The day before, WEC President Becky Kelley set up the issue with a more direct attack on CarbonWA.
The last two lines constitute a not-so-subtle dig at CarbonWA and its supporters who, by implication, have "pulled up the stakes" on a process they see likely to go nowhere. It is also a blatant attempt to depress citizen signature gathering in the vital first two or more months of the effort. Finn Coven and Small well know the legislative session is likely to last into June. But don't worry, they say, we'll have our own initiative if we fail in Olympia.
The day before, WEC President Becky Kelley set up the issue with a more direct attack on CarbonWA.
“There’s also action from another
climate group right now, CarbonWA, that’s proposing a ballot measure on climate
change. Unfortunately, they lack the broad base of support needed to move
something this big.
Movement
building is hard, intentional work. The Alliance is doing that
work—building a broad coalition that is working together to develop an
effective and equitable policy to reduce global warming pollution and
strengthen our communities and economy. Conversely, CarbonWA has
predetermined its policy and is now seeking to build support for its proposal.”
Kelley
downplays the fact that CarbonWA has been building grassroots citizen support
and developing their ideas for several years now. The policy was “predetermined” by extensive
conversations among many climate-concerned citizens. That CarbonWA has its
initiative firmed and on the street while the nonprofits are still only talking
about it only indicates CarbonWA has already done much more legwork. In fact, a network of locally-rooted climate
groups is already ramping up to gather signatures across the state. Yes, unlike big Seattle nonprofits such as
Climate Solutions and WEC, they do not have multi-million-dollar budgets,
staffs of paid political professionals or big networks of high net-worth
donors. What they do have is passion and
soul, as well as impatience with insider groups that have stacked up an
impressive record of failure to pass meaningful climate policy, both at the
state and federal level.
In 2008
Climate Solutions and WEC were the lead groups in passing a state carbon cap
with no teeth. A weak state Democrat
leadership would only accept non-binding carbon reduction goals. That was at a
time when Democrats had firm control of both Legislative houses. Predictably the environmental nonprofits
proclaimed bill passage a great victory.
But in fact its weakness was pivotal in the collapse of the Western
Climate Initiative, a multi-state alliance led by California to spread carbon
caps through western states.
In 2009-10 Climate
Solutions was the lead in efforts across four Northwest states to gain congressional
delegation support for the Waxman-Markey federal carbon cap-and-trade bill. The effort collapsed in July 2010 when the
bill could not make it to the Senate floor.
Again the Democrats had substantial majorities, but the Obama White
House was unwilling to take up the cause, and fossil-fuel-state Democrats lined
up with the Republicans to kill the bill.
It is a
tragedy that the U.S. does not have a comprehensive national climate law. But it is far from tragic that particular
bill was not enacted. As Naomi Klein writes in here recent climate book, This Changes Everything, failure to pass that bill “should not be seen, as it often is, as the climate movement’s greatest defeat, but rather as a narrowly dodged bullet.” One of the Climate Solutions campaign leaders later confessed to me, “Toward the end we were uncertain of the value of what we were promoting." As well he should have been. Stuffed to the
gills with subsidies for nuclear power and “clean coal,” it was tied to a
carbon offset market that would have let coal plant operators continue
polluting with minimal reductions into the 2020s. The bill came to include a bar on state and
local governments enforcing their own carbon caps. Even support for offshore oil drilling came into the Senate bill. All in all it was a barely digestible,
hairball-filled piece of legislative sausage.
That brings
us to the present. For the past several years Climate Solutions and allies have been setting up the "West Coast Agenda." It frames passage of climate legislation in Washington state and Oregon as a way to put carbon policy back on
the national table through forming a solid coastal climate block. California already has an operating
cap-and-trade and British Columbia has a revenue-neutral carbon tax much as
CarbonWA is proposing. All revenues are
recycled to tax reductions or to help for low-income families deal with higher
energy prices. But with Republican control of both houses of Congress and the
climate debate even more partisanized than in 2009-10, it is hard to see when
carbon pricing again becomes a serious option on Capitol Hill. Maybe in the 2020s, after ice vanishes from the
summer Arctic Ocean.
Nonetheless,
carbon pricing at the state and provincial level is a worthy end in itself, and
so the political debate should be joined.
The Inslee plan has drawn broad support, including among many activists
who favor an “all of the above” approach and are supporting both the governor
and CarbonWA. Even though many are
unhappy with the sausage the governor cooked up to get the bill passed. Most of the carbon revenues go to education
and road repair. Education is a good
cause, but needs a better long-term source of funding than fossil fuels, which
we should be trying to eliminate as fast as possible. The governor’s plan bars use of carbon
revenues for road expansion, but by freeing up gas tax revenues it in effect
facilitates transportation megaprojects.
Inslee, who wrote a book about launching a clean energy revolution
called Apollo’s Fire is in as good a
position as anyone to know his plan is no moonshot.
The issue
in Washington state, though, seems to be less about which is the best policy
design – carbon tax or cap-and-trade – than about insider political calculus. I gained the full download from a Climate
Solutions leader who called to try to persuade me not to endorse the CarbonWA
initiative.
His
argument can be summarized in three points:
· The political professionals have
looked at the initiative and its polling numbers and concluded it can’t win.
· It will take $15-20 million to pass
the initiative, and with these kind of numbers the big-money funders will not
come to the table.
· The initiative could lose, and lose
big, dragging down Jay Inslee’s 2016 reelection effort – This has the inside baseball
players particularly worried.
Thus it is
not surprising that House Democrats are taking a second look at the Inslee
bill. They fear the political
fallout.
The Climate
Solutions leader confirmed that, indeed, the political professionals are trying
to strangle the CarbonWA baby in its crib before it can gain substantial
momentum. Thus the blasts this week from
Climate Solutions and WEC, even as CarbonWA was announcing its first citizen
petition-gatherer trainings.
My response
to my old Climate Solutions colleague – I was a founder of the group and served
there until 2013 as Research Director – is that I just don’t believe the
political professionals or the business as usual political model anymore. I can
no longer subscribe to the insider political calculus that has led the climate
movement from defeat unto defeat. The messages of the email blasts, “a winning
strategy” from WEC and “An alliance to win climate action” from Climate
Solutions, stand in ironic counterpoint to the record lined out above.
The case
made by both the groups is that they have spent substantial time building the
alliance needed to pass climate policy, if not in the Legislature, then at the
ballot box. They have assembled a broad coalition
of traditionally progressive advocacy, labor and faith groups. But it is hard to see how another legislative
defeat builds much momentum. This is
particularly the case when in your first shot you alienate the substantial
network of climate-concerned citizens already rallying for CarbonWA, essentially
calling them irresponsible children who should bow before the serious political
adults who run the big groups. The
email blasts sent out this week set up a substantial schism and bad feeling in
the broader climate community when unity is needed.
It should
also be noted the Climate Solutions-WEC led Alliance has its own internal
tensions. There is definite
dissatisfaction on the social justice side of the table that the Inslee plan
did not include substantial funding for green jobs. As well, an insider-outsider dynamic has some
groups wondering how much they will really be at the table when a ballot
initiative is designed. Knowing how it works from the inside, they have good
cause for concern.
There was a
strong subtext in what my old Climate Solutions colleague told me – that the
big money funders are unwilling to support real, grassroots citizen organizing
that could move poll numbers. Organizing
such as CarbonWA has undertaken and is undertaking. There are 18 full months and some days before
the 2016 election. CarbonWA has some
money and is bringing on seven organizers to rally citizen signature
gatherers. If substantial funding came
on the table now, it would leverage far greater efforts, people-to-people
communications in neighborhoods and communities. The most credible source of messages is
familiar faces, not TV screens.
Unfortunately
the big nonprofits seem to lack a vision for real grassroots organizing. “Grassroots” in their eyes means sending
professional canvassers into an area to knock on doors. I know because I have been in on the
discussions. Grassroots means much
more. It means building networks of
locally-based climate groups, circles of active citizens who talk about climate
to their friends, neighbors, and workmates, to fellow members of churches, civic
organizations and softball teams. Such a
people power movement is what it’s going to take to overcome the inevitable
deluge of fossil fuel money that will come up against any initiative. This is exactly the kind of people power movement
CarbonWA is building.
So I am doing here what my old Climate Solutions colleague tried to persuade me not to
do. I am saying no to the political
insiders and yes to the CarbonWA initiative, and will be joining the citizens’
climate army gathering signatures this spring, summer and fall. I am not endorsing the initiative because
it’s my ideal climate policy – It’s not.
Druthers I would rather see a portion of carbon revenues directly
invested in clean energy and land-based carbon storage. I am endorsing it
because it’s what we have right now, not something we may have months down the
line designed by groups who have fed us some pretty questionable sausage over
the years. And unlike the political
insiders I think a solid citizen-led effort has as good a chance to win as
anything they are likely to propose.
The
revenue-neutral carbon tax has become the policy of choice for the climate
grassroots. From the Citizens Climate
Lobby to James Hansen to CarbonWA and its compatriot, Oregon Climate, this is
the only carbon pricing policy that draws much grassroots enthusiasm. Cap-and-trade, such as the governor proposes
and could well be the design of a Climate Solutions-WEC initiative, is widely
distrusted for its gaming potential.
Even if advocates can make a logical argument their proposal avoids
these pitfalls, logic is not what politics is about. Perception is, and cap-and-trade is not well
perceived.
The
CarbonWA proposal has a strong
equity argument. It would reshuffle
tax revenues by cutting sales tax one percent and funding a tax credit for
around a half-million of the state’s lowest income families. In doing this it
would reduce imbalances in Washington state’s most-regressive-in-the-nation tax
system more than any measure since food sales taxes were repealed in 1977. As the accompanying chart shows, the lower on the income spectrum the greater the tax bite. The initiative's tax shifting would have tremendous general benefit, especially toward the bottom rungs.
Based on
the BC experience, the CarbonWA measure would generate significant carbon
reductions. The tax came on line in 2008
at $10 per carbon tonne and has now risen to $30. Since BC has a largely hydropower electricity
base, the tax has its prime impact on vehicle fuel. By 2012 the tax
had reduced BC fuel use 16%, stacked against a comparable rise of 3% across
the rest of Canada. This is even as BC
was growing faster than the rest of the nation.
Even though fuel use has risen a bit with lower gas prices, it is still
substantially below what it would be without the tax. Meanwhile the tax offset
$760 million in taxes to give BC residents Canada’s lowest personal income tax
rates.
So I am calling
on my fellow climate-concerned citizens to surge onto the streets to gain the
315,000 needed signatures this spring, summer and fall. If enough signatures are gained quickly
enough, perhaps we can avoid the folly of competing climate initiatives, and
with that the danger the opposition will be able to charge, “These climate
people can’t even agree among themselves.
So why should we believe them?”
A surge of
signatures that successfully gains ballot placement will also push funders to
support the measure for exactly the reason they are scared of it now. They cannot afford a 2016 ballot loss. They do not want anything that could drag
down the governor. So confronted with a citizen-led fait accompli they will
have little choice but to support it.
In my years
at Climate Solutions I had a front row seat to several of the big defeats. I saw how gaining sign-ons from business
leaders and support from “grasstops” funders was not enough to win the day. Despite the broad organizing this time
around, the group and its allies are still on the way to another legislative
defeat. If they can pull it out, I will
happily celebrate their victory. But for
now, even with pressure from CarbonWA on legislators, it’s not looking
great.
A
heartening development has taken place since the 2010 federal climate debacle.
Naomi Klein in her book documents how that effort was built on “grasstops”
organizing among business and other leaders.
I recall it well. But since then the climate movement has sprouted a
genuine grassroots of concerned citizens operating on a volunteer basis in
locally organized groups. They are the
people acting for divestment from fossil fuel stocks, engaging in direct action
and mounting citizen ballot initiative efforts such as those of CarbonWA.
It is time
for some humble reflection on the part of Climate Solutions, WEC and allied
groups on why you have lost so often, and some due respect for grassroots
citizens who are driven by passion and concern rather than poll numbers and
insider calculations of funder politics.
No matter how much money you have, it will take a citizen army to win
the game at the ballot box. CarbonWA is
building that army. I hope you take some
pointers and consider how you can support the overall success of the climate
movement. It will not be by trying to
monopolize the issue for your own groups. You need the grassroots. Get out from behind your computers and
conference tables, get out of your offices and connect. You might find, as I have, some cause for
hope.
Thank you Patrick - well said. It is important that we all work together to achieve a sustainable future. Rod
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis Patrick. It's a shame that we constantly find ourselves fighting sellouts like Climate Solutions and WEC. They've tied themselves so tightly to promises of money and influence from feckless neoliberals that they're completely clueless how out of touch with the true grassroots they've really become.
ReplyDeleteIt's a sad example of the true business of climate change.
If the governor's plan fails, we should support CarbonWA, instead of starting from scratch.
ReplyDeleteMy sentiments exactly.
DeleteIt is disappointing to learn that Climate Solutions and WEC are considering opposing the CarbonWA initiative.
ReplyDeleteHere is one more bit of evidence they have it wrong: "Carbon Tax Polling Milestone: 2/3 Support if Revenue-Neutral" [http://www.carbontax.org/blogarchives/2015/04/15/carbon-tax-polling-milestone-23-support-if-revenue-neutral/]
Yes, Rob, totally agree. Whereas I think a cap-and-trade ballot initiative is a potential political disaster. I will be posting on that before long.
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