We now know
we can run the world 100% on clean, renewable energy. The question is whether
we can do it in time to prevent the world from plunging into full-blown climate
chaos.
An avalanche of studies points the way to a 100% world largely based on wind and solar energy. They illuminate how to reach 100% in all sectors – electricity, transportation, and heating/cooling – by 2050. Most prominent are roadmaps for 139 countries and 50 U.S. states done by Stanford’s Mark Jacobson and his team, and the Energy Revolution series done by Greenpeace. There are many others.
This is
more than an academic exercise. Nations
are acting. Costa Rica plans to reach 100% renewable electricity this year, and
Scotland by 2020. Denmark has targeted
100% in electricity, heating and cooling by 2030, and to end all fossil fuel burning
by 2050. Sri Lanka aims for 100% renewable electricity by 2030. Hawaii is the first U.S. state to enact a 100% renewable electricity standard, with a 2045 goal. Some
50 cities including 15 in
the U.S. have made a 100% commitment including San Diego, San Francisco, San
Jose, Copenhagen, Sydney, Frankfurt, Munich and Vancouver, B.C. Some cover only electricity, while others
sweep in all sectors. Four
U.S. cities now draw 100% of their electricity from renewables, as do 74
German localities. Companies aiming at 100% renewable electricity include
Google, Facebook, Apple, Nike, Starbucks and Proctor & Gamble.
A 100%
renewable world is possible. The big question is - Can we achieve it fast
enough to avert a complete climate meltdown?
Because oil companies systematically monkeywrenched the political system
to prevent significant carbon regulation for over 25 years, we are very late in
the game. With carbon pollution growing
at a record rate, the world is on track for the worst-case
climate havoc, a nature-wracking, civilization-destroying 4-5° C heat upsurge
this century.
How fast do
we need to drop carbon pollution to get off this dead-end track? Almost
unimaginably fast. Some would say at a
rate that is impossible. Nonetheless, we must let the best climate science set
the goalpost and work backwards from there to make the scientifically necessary
the politically feasible. That means we
must break through the political deadlock that has stalemated real progress. And that calls for a people power revolution. The upcoming Break Free actions, aiming at the largest
wave of civil disobedience against the fossil fuel industry in history, are an
opening salvo. Northwest actions are slated for the
Anacortes, Washington oil refineries May 13-15.
So what
does the science say? James Hansen,
perhaps the world’s leading climate scientist, pulled together one of the most
comprehensive studies to ground the Our
Children’s Trust youth climate lawsuits now underway against states and the
federal government. He and his grandchildren are plaintiffs in the latter. (A major
victory was just won in the federal suit.)
The Hansen
study says we must stop global warming in its
tracks. To do this we must keep total
warming to just a little over 1°C rather than the 2°C often cited or the 1.5°C
aspirational limit set at the recent Paris climate summit. That means holding
additional warming to no more than 0.4°C over today. The aim must be to reduce
carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million by
2100, the point at which the planet stops accumulating solar heat and climate
recovery can begin. They are now over 400 ppm. Says Hansen, “Unless a human ‘tipping point’ is
reached soon, with implementation of effective policy actions, large
irreversible climate changes will become unavoidable.”
Coast-drowning
sea
level rise would be one such change, happening more rapidly than generally
expected. When temperature was around 1°C greater
than today, ocean levels were 20-30 feet higher. Hansen says oceans
could elevate 10 feet in as little as 50 years, taking out large swathes of
cities including New York, London and Shanghai.
But the
most deadly disruption would be acceleration of feedback loops – global warming
feeding global warming – already under way.
Super-potent heat-trapping gas methane will leak from huge Arctic sinks
at a more rapid rate. Arctic Ocean icepack that reflects 90% of solar heat back
into space will increasingly be replaced with blue water that absorbs 90%. That
will melt methane-laden permafrost and seabed ice crystals even faster. Feedbacks will leave our children in a
nightmare world careening into climate disruption beyond any possibility of
human control
Hansen’s
human “tipping point” entails deep and immediate reductions in carbon
pollution. If we had started in 2013 when the study was done, 6%-per-year
carbon reductions would have been required. The curve is steeply rising. If the
world waits until 2020 required annual cuts will be 15%.
In 2016, it is clear we must aim for at least 10% annual carbon
reductions to recover our climate, and something like an 80% reduction in all
sectors by 2030 – 10% is the conclusion of other
scientists as well. It should be noted that
Hansen’s is not even the most challenging science, nor is 2030 the most
ambitious goal. A safety margin to account for uncertainties should aim for as
close to 100% renewable energy by 2030 as we can get. The Jacobson team says this is technically
doable. The challenges are political and
economic.
No doubt,
achieving carbon pollution cuts sufficient to leave our children with a
habitable world will take upsetting the political and economic status quo. Coal and gas power plants must be shut down
before their economic life is complete.
This will require mandates and not just market-tipping carbon prices. Vast public investments must be made in wind,
solar, energy storage and a power grid capable of handling variable sun and wind energies. A campaign
of universal building energy efficiency retrofits must be undertaken. This is
not just about replacing energy sources, but using far less.
Sweeping
changes must come to transportation. Virtually all road expansions must halt,
including those already scheduled – A multiplicity of studies tells us traffic expands to
fill the road space available to it. We must
electrify transportation to the greatest degree possible. But it will take more than electric cars.
Electrified public transit must be built up at breakneck speed, including
buses, light rail and interurban rail. We will need comprehensive bicycle lanes separated from car traffic a la Amsterdam or Copenhagen. A climate mobilization on the
scale of World War II will be required to accomplish these
transformations.
In making
the 100% renewables revolution we will have to keep our eyes on a lot of
balls. We will have to make sure
benefits are distributed broadly, working toward an energy democracy that
promotes local and community ownership.
We must make sure low-income people and people of color have a fair share. We will have to ensure that displaced fossil
fuel workers gain a just transition to new occupations that pay as well. We will have to scrutinize renewables
production and siting to make sure that workers are treated justly and
environmental impacts are minimized. We will also have to pay attention to non-fossil
carbon pollution. Hansen’s prescription includes
transforming agriculture and forestry to soak 100 billion tonnes of
carbon from the atmosphere.
The 100%
renewables revolution won’t be simple or easy to pull off. We must defeat the
most powerful industry on Earth, fossil fuels, and their corporate allies,
notably power utilities. But to have a
planetary future that is not wracked by unimaginable climate chaos, one with
which our children simply cannot cope, we must undertake the revolution right
away. We must break free from fossil
fuels with a rapid and just transition to 100% renewable energy.
TOPICS: CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE DISRUPTION, GLOBAL WARMING, RENEWABLES, 100% RENEWABLES, CLEAN ENERGY, JAMES HANSEN, OUR CHILDREN'S TRUST, CLIMATE JUSTICE, EXXON KNEW
TOPICS: CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE DISRUPTION, GLOBAL WARMING, RENEWABLES, 100% RENEWABLES, CLEAN ENERGY, JAMES HANSEN, OUR CHILDREN'S TRUST, CLIMATE JUSTICE, EXXON KNEW
I'm including this in my Africa messages today! If we can save a continent from being turned into a nuclear and fossil fuel mess let's do so! We can also prevent international trade in that respect.
ReplyDeleteThank you Mary JaneButler!
ReplyDeleteSo refreshing to see so many countries trying to make a difference and protect the planet! i will share this on my social media platforms to have more people aware of this.
ReplyDelete