HANSEN HAD IT NAILED
June 23 is
milestone in climate history. Today in 1988, then NASA scientist James Hansen told Congress human-caused global warming was with us.
Already
esteemed as one of the world’s leading climate scientists, Hansen cited the
string of record hot years starting to break out in the 1980s. He told the Senate Energy and Natural
Resources Committee that the probability this was caused by human greenhouse
gases was 99%.
The fossil
fuel industry knew it too. ExxonMobil scientists had accurately projected
the track of climate disruption. Its oil
industry peers were also well aware. But
corporations whose capital assets and profits are totally tied to continued
fossil fuel burning instead funded a monumentally evil disinformation campaign
to block action. Today some 400,000 people die annually from heat waves, hunger,
disease, storms and other climate disruption-connected impacts. Fossil industry
executive hands are soaked in blood.
If
political leaders had been listening to Hansen then, we could have avoided a
lot of death and destruction. In fact,
they should have been listening earlier, in 1981, when Hansen made temperature
projections that have proven remarkably close.
He wrote, "Potential
effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of
the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and
opening of the fabled Northwest Passage."
It is the 21st century and Hansen’s predictions have
materialized. California and the Southwest have suffered long-term
drought. Colorado River dam pools are at
record lows. Sea levels are rising the
fastest in 6,000 years. West Antarctic ice is on death
watch. The Northwest Passage has been
opening since 2007, and in 2016, a year when climate disruption has spiked to a
new level, Arctic Ocean ice
melt is a month ahead of the 2012 record.
An ice-free ocean is seriously possible
this year or soon, promoting a deadly climate feedback – white ice that
reflects 90% of solar heat back into space replaced by blue water that absorbs
90%. Global warming is already feeding
global warming in the Arctic, threatening to unlock huge land and ocean stores
of super-potent global warming gas methane. Humanity faces the real prospect of global
warming beyond its control, short of highly uncertain geoengineering schemes.
Meanwhile, global temperatures are jumping in ways that have
scientists shouting out climate emergency. For 13 months temperatures have not only been
exceeding the record – They have been exceeding it by such a wide margin that
it is virtually certain, halfway into 2016, that it will be the hottest year on
the books. This plays out as drought and extreme heat searing hundreds of
millions in India, and an unprecedented three years of coral-killing bleaching, the third ever global coral bleaching. It has hit almost all of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.
HANSEN FORECASTS HAVOC,
UNLESS . . .
Hansen got it right in 1981, virtually on the back of the
envelope. In 1988 he accurately told us global
warming had arrived. Now, in 2016, he
and his team are projecting worldwide havoc. All of us should be listening. In a video discussion of his new, peer-reviewed paper, “Ice Melt, Sea Level
Rise and Superstorms,” Hansen calls out feedbacks between oceans and ice sheets
that “raise questions about how soon we lock in points of no return, which lock
in consequences that cannot be reversed on any time scale people can care
about.”
Those include multi-meter sea level rise this century, or next
at latest, causing the “loss of all coastal cities.” “Sea level is known to have risen rapidly
many times.” That ice sheet meltwater is
apparently already slowing the circulation of tropical water into the North
Atlantic – fresh meltwater reduces saltiness and makes water lighter, which
stops it from sinking into the depths. This hinders the mechanism that keeps circulation
moving. So currents back up, warm water
stays in the south and the north becomes cooler. That temperature contrast “will drive
superstorms stronger than any in modern times.” In past geologic eras they were
strong enough to hurl 1,000-ton boulders onto land. “All hell will break loose in the North Atlantic.”
“We are
in a position of potentially causing irreparable harm to our children,
grandchildren and future generations,” concludes the scientist, who now serves
as director of Columbia University’s
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions program.
But we have not reached the point of no return, Hansen
believes. In an earlier paper he and his
team lined out the scientific necessities to avoid this climate havoc. Hansen developed the science in 2013 as the
basis for atmospheric trust cases filed by youth
plaintiffs seeking action by governments to protect their future. The effort led by Eugene, Oregon-based Our Children’s Trust (OCT) has filed cases in a number of states, including
Washington, as well as against the federal government in U.S. District Court in
Oregon. Hansen and his granddaughter, Sophie, are plaintiffs in the federal
case, which two weeks ago won an important decision allowing it to move
forward.
The science Hansen et al developed
for the litigation is demanding, and complex.
But it boils down to several key points:
- The critical goal is to bring down the level of carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas, to 350 parts per million by 2100. 350ppm is where planetary energy balance is restored – The planet is no longer taking in more solar energy than it is sending back to space. (The level has now reached over 400ppm, spiking recently over 407ppm, and in fact grew at a record pace in 2015.) Staying above 350ppm much longer than 2100 risks radical climate feedbacks.
- Achieving 350ppm x 2100 requires immediate and large carbon pollution reductions. If the world had started in 2013, an annual rate of 6% would have been needed. If we wait until 2020, the figure grows to 15%. In 2016, the figure is probably around 10%. Besides pollution reductions, 100 billion tonnes of carbon must be soaked from the atmosphere into plants and soil.
- The threshold for dangerous climate warming is sometimes given as 2° Celsius, or the more ambitious 1.5° C limit set at the recent Paris climate summit. The 350ppm pathway would hold total warming to the peak seen since the last ice age, just a little over 1°C, with a temporary spike this century around 1.2°C. Hansen asserts we should aim at the lower temperature target to reduce the odds for dangerous feedbacks. Warming of recent months puts us in this range, underscoring the urgent necessity for rapid carbon reductions.
Five of the Washington Our Children's Trust lawsuit plaintiffs with their attorney, Andrea Rodgers. |
The
Washington OCT case has won a series of court rulings that could eventually
force the state onto the Hansen carbon reduction pathway. But, ironically, the
administration of Gov. Jay Inslee, who came into office as the “greenest
governor” with stellar credentials as a Congressional climate leader, is trying
to overturn the most recent victory through an appeal to a higher court. In an astounding move guaranteed to provoke
intense cognitive dissonance, it’s the “greenest governor” versus the climate
kids.
The kids are the eight youths who last year filed suit against the
state Department of Ecology in King County Superior Court. Foster et al v. Ecology asks the state to
protect their generation by implementing carbon limits based on the Hansen
science. That followed an unsuccessful
petition to Ecology along the same lines. Limits enshrined in a 2008 Washington law are
far below what science requires – reaching 1990 levels by 2020, reducing 25% below 1990
levels by 2035, and 50% by 2050. This is
the basis of a carbon cap rulemaking ordered by Inslee in
July 2015 to give the limits some teeth.
In her arguments before the court the youths’ attorney, Andrea
Rodgers of Western Environmental Law Center, asserted that because carbon pollution
endangers air, land, water and natural resources, the state is obligated to
regulate carbon under its constitutional and legal responsibilities, and to
levels indicated by science. The plaintiffs gained a partially favorable ruling from Judge Hollis
Hill in last November.
“In fact, as Petitioners assert and this court finds, their very
survival depends upon the will of their elders to act now, decisively and
unequivocally, to stem the tide of global warming by accelerating the reduction
of emission of GHG’s (greenhouse gases) before doing so becomes too costly and
then too late. The scientific evidence
is clear that the current rates of reduction mandated by Washington law cannot
achieve the GHG reductions necessary to protect our environment and to ensure
the survival of an environment in which the petitioners can grow to adulthood
safely.”
Judge Hill ruled that the state has an obligation to cap carbon
under its Clean Air Act and the Public Trust Doctrine in the Washington Constitution.
“In this context, the emission standards currently adopted by Ecology do not
fulfill the mandate to ‘(p)reserve, protect and enhance the air quality for
current and future generations’ (quoting the Clean Air Act).”
In fact, when Gov. Inslee ordered Ecology to implement a Clean
Air Rule to cap carbon in July 2015, he did it on a fundamental premise of the OCT case, that
sufficient authority to cap carbon exists under the state Clean Air Act. He did it on his own executive authority,
rather than that of the court ruling though.
That has important implications discussed below.
The ruling was also a partial victory for Ecology. Because the department had already undertaken
the carbon cap rulemaking, Hill declined to uphold the youth’s original
petition to Ecology.
BACK TO COURT
Under pressure from industry and other stakeholders, Ecology
withdrew its first rule draft in February. Rodgers and the kids went back to court. In April they won a second victory. Judge Hill ordered Ecology to produce a rule
by year’s end, and to recommend science-based greenhouse gas reductions to the
2017 legislature. Ecology must consult
youth plaintiffs on those recommendations, she said.
“The reason I'm doing this is because this is an urgent
situation,” Judge Hill said. “These children can't wait, the polar bears can't
wait, the people of Bangladesh can't wait. I don't have jurisdiction
over their needs in this matter, but I
do have jurisdiction in this court, and for that reason I'm taking this
action.”
“For the first time, a U.S. court not only
recognized the extraordinary harms young people are facing due to climate
change, but ordered an agency to do something about it,” Rodgers
said. “Ecology is now court-ordered to issue a rule that fulfills its
constitutional and public trust duty to ensure Washington does its part to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect the planet.”
Gov. Inslee himself lauded the decision in a May 10
email to his supporters entitled, “HUGE ruling for our planet.” “Eight courageous kids went to court to compel us adults to
take action on climate change. I'm happy to say that they won. These eight kids
know that our state can do more to fight climate change -- and I do, too. Their
case has been a call for action to no longer ignore our climate and our kids.
And now, the court has affirmed that our plan to reduce carbon pollution is the
right thing to do, and now is the right time.”
Then,
last Thursday, in what would seem a stunning contradiction of those statements,
the administration filed an appeal against the victory in the
Washington Supreme Court. The “greenest
governor” was going crosswise of the climate kids.
“The governor and Ecology continue to deceive the
public by claiming they are doing all they can to protect our children from
climate change, but their actions in court prove otherwise,” Rodgers charged. “It is important for the public to know that their leaders have many of
the legal tools they need to address climate change, but instead work to avoid
being held accountable for protecting the rights of young people.”
STATE PLAN
FALLS SHORT
In one particular, crucial to understanding this
turn of events, Inslee’s email was less than accurate. The court did not, in fact, affirm “that our
plan to reduce carbon pollution is the right thing to do . . . “ Ecology’s
second draft Clean Air Rule released on June 1 instead uses the outdated
science that Judge Hill ruled did not meet the legal test. The rule falls short in at least three major
ways:
- It mandates only 1.7% annual carbon reductions.
- Those are only on a set of large polluters that will represent at most two-thirds of the state’s economy, so the actual yearly statewide carbon reduction is more like one percent.
- It allows polluters to meet obligations through a broad set of offsetting schemes, which many analysts find uncertain and leaky.
“The stark
reality is that the leading climate scientists tell us that one percent annual
reductions of GHG emissions, which Ecology has proposed, are essentially
useless,” Rodgers and fellow OCT attorney Julia Olson wrote.
“The glaciers will still melt, the seas will still rise, the oceans will
acidify, communities will be relocated, and we and our children will suffer . .
. This is simply not a problem that can be handled by half-measures.”
While the governor is enmeshed in a complex politics pulling him many different directions, it is up to the state’s climate advocacy community to stand up for science-based limits. Two of the state’s leading climate groups did take that position in an Oct. 29, 2015 letter to Ecology.
“The Washington State Clean Air Act is a
health-based statute that directs Ecology to set standards on air pollution to
protect the health and welfare of the state,” wrote Climate Solutions and the Washington
Environmental Council (WEC). “While the
legislature established statewide emissions limits in 2008, these limits should
be a floor for climate action, not a ceiling preventing the state from
responding to the critical threats that global warming poses to public health
and the environment.
“The best available science . . . clearly indicates that emissions in
developed world economies need to drop more steeply than the 2008 law
established. This would require Washington
State to achieve at least an 80% reduction from 1990 levels by mid-century, or
a 4% annual reduction in overall CO2 emissions to achieve the 2050 target.”
CLIMATE URGENCY – TALK ABOUT IT
In
calling for 4% the groups endorsed the original science developed for the
Washington OCT case. The state has slightly less challenging targets than the
global numbers because Washington carbon
emissions have peaked. If reductions had started in 2013 or soon after, 4%
would be the number. The 8% figure cited by Hansen comes from a current
scientific review being done by his team. This shows how rapidly the challenge
is moving beyond control, and why Washington state and Inslee need to rapidly
step up to the plate for science-based carbon reductions.
So far Climate Solutions and WEC have not reflected
this urgency in their communications strategies. Even though they have supported science-based
limits in their comments to Ecology, this position has not made it into their
public messaging. An April 11 action alert from WEC called on supporters to
make comments to Ecology on the rule, and specified a number of needed
improvements for which to ask. But the list left
science-based limits off the table.
The need
for science-based limits was also absent from comments
by leaders of Climate Solutions, WEC, Sierra Club and other environmental
groups in statements lauding the June 1 re-release of the rule. Comments were more
in the tone of Climate Solutions Washington Director Vlad Gutman, who said it
took “ . . . steps in the right direction.”
WEC Climate and Clean Energy Program Director Sasha Pollack called it “an important step
forward.” The post carried a number of calls
for policy improvements, but again did not include science-based limits.
I can only hope that the groups will foreground the
science-based limits message when they encourage public comment at upcoming July
hearings. This is an issue of utterly critical
importance. The state’s most prominent climate advocacy groups need to bring
their public weight to bear on it. Public comment opportunities are here. The big westside public hearing is in Olympia Thursday, July 14, 6 p.m., at The Red
Lion Hotel, 2300 Evergreen Park
Drive SW.
And while the groups have also enthusiastically praised the youths’ victory
in the Washington OCT suit, as of this writing they have not issued any public
comment on the Inslee Administration appeal of the case. Admittedly the groups
are in a tough spot. They have been
among Inslee’s strongest supporters. But
now is time for them to push harder, and publicly, using all their resources,
for science-based limits. They should be
calling on the governor to withdraw the appeal and conduct the rulemaking under
the authority of Judge Hill’s order.
THE NUB OF THE ISSUE
Ecology is
an agency under Inslee’s executive control.
He could have instructed Director Maia Bellon to accept Judge Hill’s
order, and write the carbon rule under the color of this order. But instead Inslee chose to move the
rulemaking forward under his own executive authority. That makes it far less secure. A Governor Bryant, perish the thought, could
as easily use his executive authority to revoke the order. That would not be so
easy with a rulemaking under the color of a court mandate
The
administration has now decided to contest Judge Hill’s order to produce a rule
by year’s end. This is another step to
deny her rulings, and the youth on whose behalf they were made, any legal
standing in the process. Ecology
spokeperson Camille St. Onge claimed this was about the timeline. “One of the
things that’s important in a rule-making process is that we need a rule to be
strong and durable, and the public needs an opportunity to influence the
outcome,” she told The
Stranger. “A court-ordered deadline would hamper that.”
But St.
Onge also “said that the state still expects the rule to be finalized by the
end of the summer—a schedule that doesn’t conflict with the court-ordered
deadline,” wrote reporter Sydney Brownstone. “Nevertheless, the state is
appealing the judge’s ruling in the event that they need to change the plan.”
It seems
quite an assertion of bureaucratic prerogatives to move against a
groundbreaking legal precedent for climate protection, and a precedent won by
those most affected, youth, on the theoretical possibility that more time might be
needed. In response to Judge Hill's ruling, and her statement, "These children can't wait," Ecology is saying, wait a little longer. It seems that if the need for an
extension actually arose, a motion to Judge Hill would be a better course. The
judge has granted extensions to Ecology in the proceedings, and has proven she
too wants a strong and durable rule.
What really
seems at play is a desire on the part of the state to operate on its own
authority, rather than the legal mandates under the rulings. One can only surmise this is because the
implications of the rulings lead to Public Trust responsibilities. And those
ultimately lead to the science-based carbon reduction goals specified under the
Hansen science. At 4% a year, now rising
to around 8% or even greater, that might seem impossibly greater than any one
state can accomplish.
Indeed,
meeting carbon reduction goals that do not leave the world a wreck for our
children and theirs requires far more broad reaching efforts than most political
leaders or climate groups are yet addressing. We need a rapid shift to 100% renewable energy in all sectors, with deep transformations in transportation
and buildings. We need transformation of
forestry and agriculture. This is the context for achieving deep carbon
reductions. It involves a complex set of
public initiatives that include carbon caps and prices but go beyond them, such
as power grid modernization and vehicle electrification.
To accomplish
needed transformations quickly enough to avert climate meltdown, we need a World War II-scale mobilization of resources at all levels, from state to
nation to world. Something this huge
will require immense political will. The
only way to build this will is to bring it to the foreground of discussion and advocacy.
That new World War II message needs to be taken up by political leaders who claim
a climate commitment, and all groups working in the climate arena. At this
point, just about the only major U.S. group focusing the message is The Climate Mobilization. Everyone
should study TCM’s approach.
DEAR JAY . . .
Now let me
address some words to Jay Inslee personally. I have known you for more than 15
years, maybe better than any politician in my life. I know you have more
understanding of the climate challenge than probably at least 95% of
politicians. We have traded clean energy
economy ideas. You even told me how you
challenged the President of the United States to a basketball game, and how
Obama played. In being critical of you,
I have heard back from people close to you how you are doing the best you can
in difficult situations. On a human
level, I confess a level of personal pain in all of this. Though others might, I do not doubt your
sincerity. But your policy directions have left me with many questions, particularly
about the level of advice you are receiving.
Consider the
political optics of the “greenest governor” going against the climate kids.
They are simply horrible. They undermine
your credibility with a green constituency that you need for reelection. Among the grassroots progressive and
environmental constituencies I touch nowadays, there is a lot of skepticism
about your “greenest governor” credentials.
They have been undermined by your support for gigantic methanol refineries
in Tacoma and Kalama fed by fracked natural gas, with questionable carbon
reductions. And by allowing oil train
terminals to go in three refineries without environmental review, before a
citizen uprising gained such review for the proposed Shell Anacortes refinery terminal.
Your support of a massive $9 billion
highway construction package did not help much either.
And you
have not yet called for a moratorium on oil trains running through Washington.
In sharp contrast Oregon Gov. Kate Brown just made that call following the
fiery oil train derailment in Mosier on the Oregon side of the Columbia Gorge
June 3. If anything, Washington has more
to lose. Explosive oil trains run some
distance from downtown Portland, but in a tunnel under the Seattle downtown
core. An explosion in the city would be
utterly catastrophic.
In an
email sent this week you acknowledged that the Mosier explosion was “yet
another reminder of the dangers that oil trains pose to our communities. We
need stronger protections for our residents in Washington state.” The Take Action box has the headline, “Get
dangerous oil trains off our tracks.”
But the button goes to a petition that only calls
for “stronger safety standards.” You
have thus bought into the argument that there is such a thing as a safe oil
train. In fact, no level of standards
could make the inherently dangerous animal that is the unit oil train safe. The
Oregon crash was the result of a broken bolt that might well have been
invisible to inspectors, rendering any train improvements moot.
While many people in the Washington climate community with whom
I have worked in the past will be inside the Washington State Convention Center
tomorrow night for your fundraiser with President Obama, I will be on the outside with members of the climate grassroots. We will be demanding you ask for an oil train
moratorium, as well as that you order the youth lawsuit appeal dropped. In other words, we really want you to live up
to your “greenest governor” title.
I really wish I could go back to the old days when I was one of
your unabashed supporters. But your
positions on carbon-intensive fossil and transport infrastructure have undermined
that. And going crosswise of the climate kids, the real climate leaders of
Washington state, has left me deeply disappointed. To really look our kids in the face we need
to stand up for their world. That means
accepting science-based carbon limits, using every legal pathway at our disposal,
and pushing for all the policies needed to reach them.
Just going in the right direction is not enough. Our test will
be in what ultimately happens to our children’s world. That is the test you face now, as Governor of
the State of Washington. Please step up
now as a climate leader, stand with the kids, and put the state on the pathway
to 350ppm. We’re just one state, but we need to pick up our share of the
load. Help mobilize us to do it. The science
and our children’s world demand nothing less.
KEYWORDS: WASHINGTON STATE, GOV. JAY INSLEE, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE DISRUPTION, GLOBAL WARMING, JAMES HANSEN, OUR CHILDREN'S TRUST, ATMOSPHERIC TRUST LAWSUITS
KEYWORDS: WASHINGTON STATE, GOV. JAY INSLEE, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE DISRUPTION, GLOBAL WARMING, JAMES HANSEN, OUR CHILDREN'S TRUST, ATMOSPHERIC TRUST LAWSUITS
I would say what's behind this is possibly the vested interests for fossil fuel and nuclear power development on the continent of Africa and the politics involved in that process. For your reference meet African Nigerian Human Rights lawyer .
ReplyDeleteThe Gupta brothers of South Africa are the equivalent of the American Koch brothers and criminal charges have been brought up against them for funneling money from India for the quick and easy nuclear industry to move in on the African continent. The UNEP has stated the tremendous amount of money it will take to recover the heavily oil polluted Niger Delta but someone needs to not only make sure they finally do their job 19 years after the first evaluation.
Brilliant article, Patrick. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post Patrick. Gov. Inslee really owes us an explanation of his decision to appeal the court's order to lower carbon emissions. He should listen to the people who helped get him elected and change his mind.
ReplyDeleteAs you point out, we need steeper cuts than Inslee has proposed. This is why it is so important for us to pass I-732 this fall. James Hansen has endorsed I-732 and as judge Hill said in her ruling, “The reason I'm doing this is because this is an urgent situation,”. “These children can't wait, the polar bears can't wait, the people of Bangladesh can't wait. ...".
Implementing the carbon tax in I-732, a proven effective policy for reducing carbon emissions, could get us another 2%, or more, of reduction per year as well as reduce taxes for the lowest income people among us.
Is it implicitly understood by the judge's order, that an 8% reduction here would only be doing our share, but by itself not really protecting any children unless other agencies take similar action.
DeleteIn other words, we are to be a role model motivating others to do their part, but if they don't, then at least we did honored our obligations under the Public Trust Doctrine?
By Don Steinke, Vancouver
Of course we would only be doing our share and being a model. As a significant state in a nation that is responsible for 25% of the climate pollution in the sky, we can do no less.
Delete350 is advocating for a strong push next week, but I'm not sure anyone knows the messaging should be. What would you suggest?
ReplyDeleteAnd if Ecology tried to implement a more ambitious plan, could they succeed?
The vision of the Alliance for Jobs and Clean Energy seems to be that we need a price on carbon which puts the revenue into conservation and renewables.
Here are 350 Seattle's talking points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8mvnftuNX0LbGNmeURUOVlhYlk/view
ReplyDeleteIf Ecology were to base the authority for the rule on the low court ruling, then it could be overturned by a higher court.
ReplyDeleteBut if Ecology's rule was based on Washington's Clean air Act, it would be have stronger legal support.
Here is what Inslee is up against.
http://www.maplevalleyreporter.com/business/386086001.html
Apparently -- businesses always want breaks and will claim they would leave without the breaks.
The court ruling is based on the Clean Air Act as well as the Public Trust responsibility in the state Constitution. It could be overturned by a higher court, but a court ruling is inherently stronger than executive action. This is a parallel to the Obama clean power plan, which is a based on a Supreme Court ruling that mandates CO2 regulation based on the federal Clean Air Act.
DeleteI thought the quarrel was over the percent reduction. Science would indicate a number much higher than the law, according to some.
DeleteNOW is the time for ACTION for Mother Earth and for Real Climate Recovery.
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ReplyDeleteJulia Olson, lead attorney for Our Childrens' Trust, gave the Friday Keynote at this years PIELC (Public Interest Env. Law Conf) in Eugene last month. skip around, see some of the faces and stories.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTi-HwNgElQ&t=2343s
Nice. Thanks. This is one of the videos I had started watching in putting together my newest play list "Methane Hydrates & other stuff" https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL4D389B11CAF429EC and it's a work in progress as I add other videos to it.
Delete